Meekless following
All Trump's bluster cannot hide he is not calling the shots - anywhere.
Is this what makes America great again? Putin having Trump on his leash and now the president helplessly following Netanyahu. Meekness characterises American foreign policy, all rhetoric notwithstanding. While Washington demolishes everything reminiscent of the American Century, outside forces steer a helpless because vacuous president.
The tone of commentary and analysis in the American media has changed. Before Israel launched a war of aggression, people were skeptical of an attack on Iran. After all negotiations were going on, negotiations that resembled in every which way the 2015 Obama deal that Trump killed in 2018. Iran was mislead: despite negotiations, Israel attacked. Netanyahu was bold enough to wish to derail whatever might have come out of those negotiations. Iran was unprepared for Netanyahu's duplicity – which is surprising enough.
By now the conversation is all about the US bunker buster bomb that would be needed to destroy the last vestige of Iran's nuclear capability. Comments have shifted: now that the war has begun, America is left with no choice but to follow Netanyahu's lead. The logic is simple. Once underway, America must help Israel destroy Iran once and for all. Half-heartedness is worse than an American war in the Middle East, is the reasoning. Not just from the Israel applause crowd in the comments, but even from more thoughtful analysts. Call it a victory for Netanyahu’s approach of flouting international law and morality.
Trump’s hapless bunch of advisers are not so much divided as ignorant. One can wonder if that is progress after the hawks who pushed him toward an attack on Iran in his first term. Fascinatingly, intelligence supremo Tulsi Gabbard had informed Trump that it was not nearly as clear that Iran was close to a bomb as Netanyahu wanted him to believe. As is the way with advice that doesn't suit Trump, Gabbard was sidelined and, as is Trump’s wont, badmouthed. The question whether it really is so awful if Iran has that capacity, a subject on which the trade magazine Foreign Affairs has published interesting articles in the past, is not discussed at all – with the exception of Stephen Wertheim in the Guardian. Everyone assumes blindly Iran cannot be allowed to do anything in this field.
Trump himself is not so sure. He is so impressed with Israel's skill in assassinating Iran's top military officers that he wanted some credit for it himself, in his absurd neediness. His act of “I can do it, or I can't do it” fits perfectly into his daily tactic of holding (and shifting) the media's attention from Los Angeles and Gaza.
Netanyahu is the one who has best thought through the logic of his attack. A war of aggression is readily accepted by the West when it comes from an “ally” like Israel. So he could simply attack, with or without U.S. support, and so doing sink an imminent deal he did not want. He gambled that Trump would be forced to move with Israel.
Netanyahu's secondary objective of regime change, given the region, should be taken with a bag of salt. Even without ayatollahs, Iran is a regional superpower (88 million inhabitants versus Israel's 10 million) and it is far from clear who would take power if the ayatollahs disappear. Netanyahu doesn't care. He is using the opportunity to do as much damage as possible and save his government and reputation. He is ahead. If Trump gets on board and uses his super bomb, so much the better, America will be further trapped in a region from which it tried to extricate itself under President Obama and under Trump 1.0.
In Israel, people seem to be enthusiastic about this policy. The shelf life of that enthusiasm will, as always, prove limited. Iran can still do damage, despite its reduced strength, and it makes daily life in Israel unpleasant. All fine this patriotism, but now Israel is stuck with Nethanyahu even longer. The supposed positives of his policies, the openings to Arab states with regimes appropriate to the region, will yield less if Iran continues to hound the region as a broken country.
The division in America’s public opinion is not imaginary. Ordinary Americans are not interested in another endless war in the Middle East, again pushed by information that appears to be unreliable. They have not forgotten little Bush, his lies and his wars. Loud reminders of the duplicity that got the US into the foreverwars are a dime a dozen. But don't be fooled: if America starts to actively participate and Iran's revenge starts to focus on American targets as well, patriotism will prevail. That's the way it always goes. Until they find themselves in a quagmire, once again.
It is somewhat bizarre for skeptics to find themselves in the company of MAGA shouters like Steve Bannon and Carlson Tucker, not to mention Marjorie Taylor Greene, the fishwife member of the House of Representatives. They correctly point out that Trump had promised to ignore the rest of the world as much as possible. Does this commitment fit with America First? And listen carefully to the undertone of distaste for Israel that creeps into this radical right-wing camp.
Meanwhile, Trump cannot let the tension last too long. He must decide quickly whether to follow Netanyahu's path. I wonder if those two weeks that he has plucked out of tin air would be enough. Today and tomorrow he can marshal the equally hapless Europeans to drop their fully justified criticism of Israel. And his friend Wladimir will be pleased that Ukraine will sink even further down the agenda. If Trump shows up at all. And watch out for Taiwan: a middle east war will distract the US plenty enough for Xi to make his gamble. The aircraftcarriers have already been ordered out of the Pacific, towards that hell hole called the Middle East.
The United States does not determine what the world looks like and which way it will go. Because of its lack of vision and decisiveness, the country has sidelined itself. It may seem that all decision-making power lies with Trump - bunkerbuster stories dominate the media - in reality it is Netanyahu who is cracking the whip. Trump follows. Disaster is beckoning.